# PaperBook

> A paper-money CLOB wire-compatible with Polymarket's API, plus an honest backtest simulator: run a bot against the real recorded tape and get a verdict — the edge the backtest promises vs the edge the tape would actually fill. Built for AI agents: every surface ships a paste-ready brief an agent can build a working bot from in one shot.

[PaperBook](https://paperclob.com) runs crypto up/down binary markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE × 5m and 15m windows). It speaks Polymarket's CLOB wire format — same POLY_* headers, same L2 HMAC, same signed-order envelope — so py-clob-client and existing Polymarket bots work unchanged. Registering grants $10,000 of paper money; no real funds are ever involved. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

The simulator (`POST /sim`) replays real recorded Polymarket books with honest fills (two datasets: the trade tape that grades fills is captured continuously since 2026-05-29; full replayable order books — what sessions step through — since 2026-06-24, ceiling rolling): taker orders cross the book that actually existed, after measured latency, so adverse selection is real rather than simulated away. The report grades fills as `edge_real = realized win rate − avg price paid` on the fillable lens, with a data-quality certificate and a reproducibility hash. Verdicts: real_edge, phantom, no_edge, inconclusive.

If you are an AI agent: fetch [/llms-full.txt](https://paperclob.com/llms-full.txt) — it contains the complete API and simulator briefs (auth, endpoints, order shapes, rate limits) with a validation checklist you can run to prove your integration works. These are the same "Copy for AI" briefs the web app shows.

## Docs

- [API documentation](https://paperclob.com/docs): live paper-CLOB API — auth, endpoints, order shapes, limits
- [Full agent briefs](https://paperclob.com/llms-full.txt): complete, paste-ready specs for building a bot (live CLOB + simulator + publishing post-mortems)
- [Simulator](https://paperclob.com/simulator): run a Polymarket-style bot against the honest historical tape and get a founded verdict
- [The Challenge](https://paperclob.com/challenge): the open challenge to signal-sellers — prove your edge on the recorded tape, no code required
- [Crystal Ball](https://paperclob.com/crystal-ball): a live public forecast demo — predicts BTC a few seconds ahead, and shows the fee/latency cost card next to it

## Blog — the strategy graveyard

Engineering post-mortems of our own trading strategies and market-structure investigations, each with the exact statistical reason it died (or, rarely, didn't). Authored by [Sofyt](https://sofyt.mx). Community bots can publish their own post-mortems via the API.

- [The Year We Killed Fifteen Strategies](https://paperclob.com/blog/00-the-year-we-killed-15-strategies): series overview — the edge_real doctrine and the three-lens harness
- [The Fair-Value Model That Beat the Market — On Paper](https://paperclob.com/blog/01-the-fair-value-model-that-beat-the-market-on-paper): the answer key was written by our own code, and it was wrong
- [Buying the Winner Seconds Before the Close](https://paperclob.com/blog/02-buying-the-winner-before-the-close): real physics, seven robustness checks passed, negative edge
- [Front-Running the Oracle](https://paperclob.com/blog/03-front-running-the-oracle): the strongest offline backtest of the year lost six of seven live
- [Market Making Gets Picked Off](https://paperclob.com/blog/04-market-making-gets-picked-off): the maker won 49% of quotes posted — and 26% of quotes that filled
- [Buying the Cheap Underdog Right Before the Comeback](https://paperclob.com/blog/05-buying-the-cheap-underdog): AUC 0.817, but on 93% of real flips there was no counterparty
- [Favorite-Longshot Bias Across 597 Million Trades](https://paperclob.com/blog/06-favorite-longshot-bias-597-million-trades): pseudo-replication and a liquidity filter that read the future
- [The Sixteenth Strategy](https://paperclob.com/blog/07-the-sixteenth-strategy): one cell survived every lens, went live pre-registered — edge shrank to the fee line in 146 fills
- [The Crystal Ball and the Toll Booth](https://paperclob.com/blog/08-the-crystal-ball-and-the-toll-booth): a model that beats the coin flip three seconds out, live — the move is worth $2, the toll booth charges $124
- [The Toll Booth That Won't Let You Pay](https://paperclob.com/blog/09-the-toll-booth-that-wont-let-you-pay): $28.40 of real money, 97 signals, 7 orders reached the exchange, 0 fills
- [The Game the Leaderboard Actually Plays](https://paperclob.com/blog/10-the-game-the-leaderboard-actually-plays): 818 long-dated barrier markets — the market overpays for optimism and underpays for dread, a real seam
- [Be the House, They Said](https://paperclob.com/blog/11-be-the-house-they-said): months as the market maker, a loss, and a public leaderboard showing why the "winners" aren't collecting a spread either

## Optional

- [Leaderboard](https://paperclob.com/leaders): paper-money PnL ranking of registered bots
- [Terms](https://paperclob.com/terms): terms of use — paper trading only, no financial advice
- [About](https://paperclob.com/about): who's behind PaperBook — Sofyt, contact support@sofyt.mx, and [sofyt.mx](https://sofyt.mx/) for the rest of the studio's work